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Value Betting Strategy

The main thing you should try to figure out when value betting is the maximum amount you can bet and still get called. The closer you can get to that number, the closer to perfect your play becomes. Your value bets should be as large as possible without making the opponent fold. This question is no easy question to answer. There are a few things you can consider, however, that will help you get a pretty good idea of how much you can bet.

1. The strength of your opponents  hand

This is the first thing to consider when value betting. Hand reading is the key skill when it comes to figuring out how strong your opponents hand is. You can attempt to figure this out by looking at the cards on the board, your opponents betting patterns and your opponents playing style. Once you have an idea of how strong your opponents hand is, you can then estimate how much your opponent values his hand. This information provides you with a great starting point in deciding how to size your value bet.

2. How strong your hand appears

You know exactly how strong your hand is, but your opponent can only guess. Try to look at how things have played out from your opponents perspective. Does it look like you have a monster? Is the board scary? This information will also help you estimate how much money your opponent is likely to call. An unconnected board and well-concealed hand raise the amount you can value bet and get called. A scary board, such as one that is all one suit, makes it a lot harder to bet very much.

3. Your opponents playing style

Does your opponent like to make a lot of calls or is he quick to fold? The playing style of your opponent will also help you determine how much you can value bet and get called. New and inexperienced opponents are much more likely to call value bets than opponents who know what they are doing.

Value Betting Example

An example will help illustrate the concepts we have covered so far. In this example, lets say you're in late position with AsKs. A couple people limp in, you make a standard preflop raise and everyone folds except for one of the limpers. The player who calls your raise is pretty loose and appears to be a losing player. The flop brings Ad 2s 9h. The opponent checks, you place a bet of about 75% the size of the pot and the opponent calls. The turn brings a 2h and the board now contains: Ad 2s 9h 2h. The opponent checks again, you place another bet on the turn and the opponent calls. The river brings a 9d. The final board looks like this: Ad 2s 9h 2h 9d. This is a pretty ugly board because now anyone with a 2 or 9 has a full house.

The opponent checks to you once again and now you must decide if you wish to value bet or not. Let's break it down according to the three areas of consideration we mentioned earlier.

1. The strength of your opponents hand

A little hand reading will help us out quite a bit here.

The opponent limped in preflop and then called a raise from out of position. You also know that the opponent is a loose and losing player. A player such as this could have a wide range of hands a slowplayed AA or KK, a small pocket pair and just about any hand containing an Ace. As we work through the rest of the hand, we can start to narrow down this range. The fact that your opponent checked and called on two streets tells us a lot. If he hit a strong hand (such as a set), he probably would have put in a bet or raise at some point. Anything is possible, of course, but we have to work with the most likely scenarios to get anywhere. Judging by the action and lack of draws on the board, the most likely holding for your opponent is a stubborn Ace. A 9 is unlikely because you bet twice with an Ace on board and the second 9 didn't arrive until the river. A 2 is unlikely because of the preflop action and call on the flop. This might not be the most scientific analysis in the world, but that's how you read hands in a game of imperfect information.

2. How strong your hand appears

 Your hand appears pretty strong in your opponent's eyes. You raised before the flop and then bet on the flop and again on the turn. It wouldn't be too much of a stretch for you to guess that your opponent doubts you have a 2 or a 9 after the way the hand has played out so far. Your opponent probably thinks you have an Ace or a bluff.

3. Your opponents playing style

 You know your opponent is loose and probably a losing player. This is good news for you because it means he just might call a value bet with a lower Ace. It's not the prettiest board in the world, but he just might be loose enough to call and hope for a split. The double-paired board is a little nerve-wracking, but he knows you know this as well. Loose opponents love to pick off bluffs.

4. Final decision

In this example against this opponent, I would elect to place a small value bet. The opponent has not shown any strength and really looks like he is just holding on to an Ace of some sort. I also think the opponent is loose enough to call a bet and hope to split the pot with you. And finally, I don't think the opponent is savvy enough or disciplined enough to recognize a small value bet. Therefore, I recommend a small value bet equal to half the size of the pot or less. Against a more skilled and dangerous opponent, I would check the hand down here.

A tough opponent is unlikely to call with a worse hand here. You would also open yourself up to a big checkraise, which would dictate a fold. But since the opponent appears loose and passive, a value bet is the way to go.

Final Note

This may look like a long, detailed article but value betting isn't a huge chore in practice. As long as you make it a point to thinking your way through value betting (as opposed to just betting with your gut), you will see immediate and long term improvements.