fundoopoker.com

28/09/2011

A very big part of poker is knowing when to chase your draws, and when to throw your hand away. It is possible to make these decisions using a certain amount of intuition, but to have the best chance of winning it is advantageous to use some mathematics when making decisions. A poker player with ambitions to be successful should certainly have a solid understanding of Pot Odds. Combining pot odds with the ability to calculate outs can provide a solid basis for making decisions in certain situations.

An out refers to a card that might appear as a community card that will improve a poker hand. For example, if a player has 56 in their hand and the flop comes down K78, then either a 9 or a 4 will complete the straight for that player. Therefore the 9 or 4 is considered an out for the player in this scenario.

The Calculation

When calculating outs, you basically just need to count how many cards are left in the deck that will complete your hand and work out the chances of catching one of those cards. Most commonly, this will be when you are chasing a straight or a flush. The examples below are based on calculating outs after the flop.

Hole Cards: As Kd
Flop: 10h Qs 4c

In this case, the player with the AK needs a Jack to make his straight. There are four jacks in the deck, so the player has four outs.

Hole Cards: Jd Qd
Flop: 4d 7d As

In this instance, the player has four to a flush, and there are nine other diamonds that could complete the flush. The player therefore has nine outs.

Once you know how many outs you have, you then have to work out the chances of actually seeing one of those cards you want to see. It’s a simple calculation – you just divide the number of outs by the number of unseen cards in the deck. On the flop, you can see your two cards and the three community cards, so there are 47 unknown cards. In the first example above, you have four outs so the calculation is 4 / 47 – 8.5%. Of course, if you miss you still have a chance to hit the card on the river. There will then only be 46 unknown as you have seen the turn card. So the calculation is 4 / 46 – 8.7%. If you add those two calculations together, you have approximately a 17.2% chance of making your straight after the flop.

There is a more simple way to calculate a rough percentage of your chances of hitting your outs. If there are still the turn and river to come, just multiple your number of outs by 4. If just the river is to come, then you multiply your outs by 2. This is not quite as accurate, but it’s close enough for the purpose.

So in the first example above, after the flop you would calculate you have roughly a 16% chance of making your straight (4 outs multiplied by 4). After then turn, you would have roughly an 8% chance (4 outs multiplied by 2). In the second example you would have approximately a 36% chance of making your flush with two cards to come (9 outs multiplied by 4). If you miss on the turn, you would have an 18% chance of hitting your flush on the river (9 outs multiplied by 2).

Summary

All of the above may sound a little confusing, but it can soon become second nature to calculate your outs with a bit of practice. By combining the ability to calculate outs with some knowledge of Pot Odds you will give yourself a big advantage at the poker tables.