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The Scenario

Imagine that you have reached the heads-up of major tournament where you have almost a 2-1 chip lead over an experienced opponent who has won the majority of the pots over the last hour. In fact, if it wasn’t for the decent size pot you recently won, the stacks would be about even. So, you have 6,980,000 chips at your disposal, while your opponent is sitting with 3,940,000. The blinds are 60.000/120.000, and you min-raise to 240.000 on the button holding . Your opponent calls. On the flop you make a continuation bet - 300,000 and get an unexpected re-raise - 900,000. What will be your next steps, given that your opponent has 2,780,000 behind and you are sitting with 6,420,000? So far in this hand, you’ve only invested 560,000.




Questions:

• What do you do with your flush draw in this situation?
• Would you prefer to call to see a turn card?
• Or move all-in after his re-raise?
• How well does your hand play against his range?

Some Thoughts and Considerations

The Arguments for Calling

Given the fact that most likely your opponent has a made hand, such as a nine or better, you are now looking at what is likely to be 12 clean outs to win the pot. Barring any shared cards or redraws, your chances at winning somewhere in the neighborhood of 45 percent. Perhaps, we should not rush and play more cautiously? Since we know that almost all nines or better are calling a shove, it makes little sense to take what is guaranteed to be the worst of it.

Now, if your opponent happens to have a worse diamond draw, or say, an open-ended straight draw, then there’s even more of an argument for calling, since it would tempt him to continue on most turns despite being way behind.


 

The Arguments for Shoving

Your opponent has already invested 1,160,000 of his chips, which is approximately equal to one third of his stack. Though he would undoubtedly be short stacked if he folded to a shove, his 23 big blinds are more than enough to mount a comeback. That is why there is some fold equity left in the hand.

In addition, there is no guarantee that your opponent will pay your bet off, if you hit a diamond, since it’s a card that your opponent would likely be scared of. Shoving on the flop guarantees that you’d be called by most, if not all worse drawing hands and gets medium-strength hands, such as pocket fives through eights, to fold a majority of the time.

What would you do in this situation? Please leave all your thoughts and explanations in the comments.




What Actually Happened

This hand took place at the WPT Bay 101 Shooting Star main event during the heads-up between Moon Kim and Ubaid Habib. Kim opened with a raise - 240.000, Ubaid Habib made the call. The flop fell and Habib checked. Kim bet 300,000, Habib check-raised to 900,000 and then Kim moved all in. Habib thought it over for a couple minutes before calling all-in for his tournament life with for top pair. Kim showed for a flush draw with an overcard and connected when the river came . Habib was eliminated in second place and earned $570,200, while Kim took home the trophy and the first prize - $960,900. Thank you for being with us. See you soon!