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The Scenario

Imagine that you have reached the money bubble in a major tournament with an above-average stack of 109 big blinds (1,315,000). Blinds - 6,000/12,000, Antes - 2,000. There are a few short stacks on the other tables, but, it seems that nobody of them is in real danger, so, the bubble could go on for quite some time.

Your opponent, a young strong professional with 83 big blinds (999.000), raises from the middle position – 12,000, and you decide to enter the game and call his raise with

The flop gives you an open-ended straight draw and two overcards, as well as a backdoor flush draw. You lead for 35,000 and your opponent calls.

on the turn pairs the board, but you continue your aggression and bet another 55,000. The opponent makes a quick call to see on the river. Your have 1,195,000 in chips, and your opponent has 879,000 left in front of him. What will you do on the river?


Questions:

• Do you bet, check-call or even fold after your opponent’s bet?
• If you bet, then how much?
• What kinds of hands are in your opponent’s range based on how the action has played out?

Some Thoughts and Considerations

The Argument for Betting

Perhaps, the best option on the river with a top pair will be to bet for value. An opponent can easily pay you off with any eight, three or medium pocket pair. Moreover, given your aggression on the previous streets, you are unlikely to be raised on the river by anything less than a monster, allowing you to dictate the size of the bet. By checking, you are putting yourself in a difficult situation, since it is unclear what to do if the opponent bets himself.

 
The Argument for Check/Calling

Your goal in this hand is to reach the showdown. If your opponent will check behind with a weaker hand, then you will definitely miss some value. On the other hand, your check gives your opponent an excellent opportunity to bet all his weaker hands, as well as all of his missed draws and complete bluffs. To sum up, checking has the potential to get value from his entire range, not just his made hands.

What would you do in this situation and why? The floor is yours!




The Back Feed

The hero of our today's section was a well-known pro Michael Mizrachi. At the latest World Poker Tour Championship "The Grinder" bet 100,000 on the board and was quickly called by Trevor Pope with , giving him a nice pot. Fortunately for Mizrahi, this loss was not critical for him, and both players managed to reach the final table, where Pope finishing 6th ($155,571), and Mizrahi climbed his way to a third place, earning $424,618.

Thank you all for your participation! Have a nice weekend!